Six Goals, No Pulisic, and the USA Price Still Feels Long
The USMNT's outright has compressed to around 14/1 after a second successive clean sheet, but six goals in two games without their best player suggests the market is still catching up.
Six goals from two group games. Two clean sheets. Christian Pulisic not yet on the pitch. If you were building a World Cup host's ideal opening fortnight, Mauricio Pochettino's side are running it close. The 2-0 win over Australia at a sold-out Lumen Field on Friday was comfortable enough that the scoreline understated the gulf, and the outright market, which opened this tournament with the USMNT somewhere between 17/1 and 20/1 depending on your operator, has not moved nearly fast enough in response.
The goals themselves told a story. Folarin Balogun, who announced himself to the home crowd with a brace against Paraguay, forced the opener in the eleventh minute when his driving run and cut-back left Cameron Burgess with nowhere to go, the Australian defender turning it into his own net. Then, just before the break, defender Alex Freeman nodded home a deflected Sergino Dest effort, a goal initially ruled out for offside before VAR confirmed he had timed his run correctly. Two goals, both in the first half, both rooted in the kind of high-tempo pressing and vertical movement that makes this USA side genuinely dangerous on home soil. Australia, for their part, managed a handful of half-chances and nothing more.
The number that keeps nagging at me is six. Six goals in two World Cup group games is a haul the USA have only matched in 1930 and 2002, the two best tournaments in their history. They go into the final group fixture against Turkey needing only to avoid a heavy defeat to win Group D, and Pochettino has every reason to rest key players ahead of the last 32. The Pulisic situation is relevant here: the AC Milan forward missed the Australia match entirely with a calf problem but has been described as day-to-day, and a fit Pulisic in the knockout rounds is a significant upgrade the outright price has not fully priced.
On to the picks. First: USA to win Group D at 6/5 (2.20, with Stake, code MONEYLINE). Turkey, who lost to Australia in matchday one, need a win to stay alive and will play for it, but USA have already banked six points, lead the group by three, and hold a superior goal difference. Even if Pochettino rotates heavily, the hosts at home in Seattle in front of a raucous crowd is a formidable proposition. The 6/5 available with Stake (code MONEYLINE) reflects a market that knows Turkey are a threat but still understates how well-positioned the USA are. Six-fifths for a team that needs a point from their final group game to be certain of top spot is a price worth taking.
The second pick leans on what happens once the knockout rounds begin. Christian Pulisic to score anytime in the USA's round of 32 match at 7/4 (2.75, with Stake, code MONEYLINE). Pulisic is the tournament's most discussed absentee right now, and return prices tend to drift when a player misses games rather than sharpen. But the broader context matters: he scored and assisted freely against Paraguay before being withdrawn at half-time as a precaution, he is expected back before the knockout stages, and the USA's round of 32 opponent is likely to come from a group where the quality drops sharply. Home crowd, familiar system, a tournament-record six goals already scored by his teammates, and a striker who was arguably the best player on the pitch for 45 minutes in game one. The 7/4 looks generous.
The through-line here is simple enough. A team that scores six in two games while missing its best forward, wins both matches to nil on home soil, and has a settled system under a manager who has been building toward this moment for two years is being treated by the outright market as roughly a 7-8 percent shot. Both picks are available now at Stake with code MONEYLINE. Gamble responsibly.
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