Saka sidelined for Ghana clash: England's biggest World Cup betting angle yet
Lewis Stone argues England's depth makes them the value pick against Ghana even without Saka, and singles out Antoine Semenyo for a player-prop angle with Stake (code MONEYLINE).
When Thomas Tuchel stepped up to the podium on Friday evening, the most telling line came not with a grand tactical revelation but a quiet piece of man-management. Bukayo Saka, he said, is unlikely to start against Ghana on Tuesday night. The Arsenal winger will probably wait until the final group game against Panama on June 27 before Tuchel trusts his Achilles tendon to a full 90 minutes at World Cup pace.
It is the kind of news that makes a section of England's support reach for the panic button. Saka, remember, came off the bench against Croatia and had an immediate impact, teeing up Marcus Rashford for the fourth goal in a matter of minutes. The concern is understandable. But the read here is slightly different, and the market may have overcorrected.
Because what Wednesday's 4-2 win over Croatia actually confirmed is that England have not one world-class attacker but several. Harry Kane scored twice. Jude Bellingham drove through for his goal like a man determined to settle something. Rashford, arriving as a substitute, was a blur. Noni Madueke and Anthony Gordon covered every blade of grass on the flanks. There was no shortage of invention on the night.
Tuchel is protecting his most precious asset for the knockout rounds, and he has enough firepower to do so without blinking.
The system and the coach tell you most of what you need to know about Tuesday's match. England qualified for this tournament by winning every single game in their qualifying campaign, conceding zero goals in the process. Tuchel's structure is organised, direct, and built around a Kane whose appetite for goals at major tournaments has never dimmed. Against Croatia, England produced 20 shots, 12 on target. That is not a team that relies on one winger.
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Ghana, for their part, arrive at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough in decent spirits. Caleb Yirenkyi's 95th-minute tap-in against Panama was the kind of late drama that sends a squad into the next game with belief. Antoine Semenyo, the Manchester City forward, was named Man of the Match and posed constant problems with his pace and directness. Coach Carlos Queiroz knows how to organise a side. And the Partey complication, with the vice-captain's Canadian visa refusal forcing him out of the Panama match, could yet resolve itself for the England fixture with the game moving to Massachusetts. If you want a price on Ghana to qualify from this group, they are around 7/2 with Stake to advance to the knockout stage, a figure that reflects the genuine quality in their squad.
Now, the bets.
England are around 4/6 to win, Ghana around 4/1 to cause an upset, and the draw sits around 11/4.
England to win: the depth argument makes them the play at this price
Let's address the Saka absence head-on. Even without him in the starting XI, England's forward line is a problem for any Group L opponent. Kane's positioning in and around the penalty area remains among the best in world football. Bellingham drifts into pockets that no midfielder of this generation finds quite like him. Rashford off the bench adds the kind of pace and directness that wore Croatia down in the second half.
Ghana, meanwhile, needed an injury-time winner to beat a Panama side that most observers had down as the group's weakest team. Queiroz's side were well-organised but offered limited in open play, with their xG for the match comfortably under 0.8 per the Opta post-match data. Against England's quality in midfield, led by Declan Rice and Elliot Anderson in a disciplined double pivot, Ghana will find it much harder to control the tempo.
The absence of Saka shifts the weight of England's attack through the middle rather than down the right channel, and that may actually suit Kane. More central service, more second-ball situations for Bellingham, and more room for England's full-backs to drive forward. Reece James was excellent against Croatia and will fancy his chances down the right against whatever winger Ghana field on that side.
England have won their last five competitive matches and have scored in each one. At this level, against a Ghana side whose defensive record flatters them slightly after one game against limited opposition, the Three Lions are value to take all three points.
Antoine Semenyo to have 2 or more shots: Ghana's best weapon poses real problems for England's back line
Ghana are not without danger, and the focal point of it runs through one man: Antoine Semenyo. The Manchester City forward was the Black Stars' standout performer in the Panama win. He completed 90 minutes, consistently drove at defenders, and was at the heart of the move that created the winning goal. His pace, directness and willingness to take on players makes him the kind of threat that will pull Ezri Konsa and John Stones out of position.
Two statistics from the Panama match stand out. First, Semenyo attempted more dribbles than any other Ghana player. Second, he drew more fouls in that game than any other player on the pitch. Against an England side that will have plenty of the ball and can occasionally be caught when the press is on, Semenyo will have space to run into on the counter.
I would not back Ghana to win this game. But the player-prop angle here is compelling. England's centre-backs were not tested at their absolute sharpest by Croatia's forwards, and Semenyo is a step up in terms of directness. The shot line for Semenyo at 2 or more is a sensible place to sit, reflecting his work rate and tendency to arrive in advanced positions throughout 90 minutes. He is 6/4 with Stake (code MONEYLINE) to register two or more shots on target, and that is a price worth taking.
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